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Jan
06
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90B…which is located approximately 590 NM south of Yangon, Myanmar

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a struggling low level circulation with flaring convection, and increasingly sheared cloud banding.

The disturbance is located in an area of good poleward upper level outflow, warm sea surface temperatures…and an area of medium 20 knot wind shear.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northward towards Myanmar over the next few days, with weak intensification possible within 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S…which is located approximately 280 NM east of Cocos Island in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center, with significant convective banding.

Upper level analysis indicates westward diffluence with good equatorward outflow…and partially favorable 20-30 knots of easterly wind shear.

Meanwhile, warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development, while models depict a slow consolidation of this system over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96W…which is located approximately 870 NM southeast of Manila. Philippines

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveals a weak and compact low level circulation center, with associated deep convective cloud banding developing along the western periphery.

This disturbance lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis, in an area of moderately strong easterly wind shear…and favorable westward and poleward diffluence aloft.

Global model guidance depict marginal development, as the center tracks west-northwestward over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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