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Nov
28
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage) is dissipating over the South China Sea…and is located about 242 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, for now retired Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, for now retired Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage)

Former Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage) has now been retired over the South China Sea

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), now retired TC Tokage has tracked southwestward at 17 knots over the past 6-hours.

This is the Final Warning on this system by the JTWC, which will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with low chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with low chance of developing within 24 hours

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 96P…which is located approximately 325 NM east-northeast of Willis Island

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a very broad circulation with flaring convection associated with it.

This disturbance currently lies in a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and good outflow aloft. However, there is increased wind shear located just south of the system.

Global models indicate the disturbance will likely track to the southeast over the next few days, with some consolidation possible.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours continues to be low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with low chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with low chance of developing within 24 hours

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91B…which is located approximately 800 NM southeast of Chennai, India

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a very broad although well defined circulation, with flaring convection.

The disturbance currently lies  in a marginal environment, due to moderate wind shear, however it is in an area with warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflow.

Global models indicate the system will track northeast over the next few days, into an area of lower wind shear, before tracking northwest…showing development possible in 4-5 days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours continues to be low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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