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Nov
25
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Otto) has now moved into the eastern Pacific…and is located about 245 miles south-southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage) has crossed through the central Philippine Islands…and is located about 168 NM south of Manila, Philippines


PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 16L (Otto)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 24-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions for Tropical Cyclone 16L (Otto)

Tropical Storm 16L (Otto) is now active in the open ocean of the eastern Pacific Ocean…moving away from the Central American coast

Microwave imagery showing Otto impacting the Caribbean coast

Maximum sustained winds were 110 mph at landfall, making Otto a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. 

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, along with the enhanced animated version.

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), microwave and conventional satellite imagery shows that Otto’s cloud pattern is a little better organized now, with a mid-level eye and very deep convection surrounding the center.

While global models show a gradual decay of the cyclone, other intensity guidance show a steady state or even slight intensification. The wind shear is a little bit strong for significant intensification primarily during the next 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease, but the environment is forecast to dry out.

Otto is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 14 knots, within the easterly flow associated with a strong mid-level high pressure system over Mexico. This steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next 2 to 3 days, so a general west or even west-southwest track is anticipated.

By the end of the forecast period, Otto should be located on the southwestern edge of the high and should then begin to turn to the northwest and north.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Otto will diminish today over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with additional amounts of up to 1 inch possible.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, for Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, for Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage)

Tropical Storm 29W (Tokage) remains active over the central Philippines…about to move out over the South China Sea

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts a central dense overcast feature obscuring the low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions remain favorable, with low wind shear and vigorous poleward outflow.

TS Tokage is forecast to turn west-northwestward to northwestward. At the same time, the system is forecast to intensify slowly, as it tracks poleward through 36 hours…to a peak intensity of 55 knots.

After 48 hours, TS 29W should slow and become nearly stationary. The storm will then weaken rapidly after 48 hours, due to increasing wind shear.

After 72 hours, the storm should accelerate southwestward over the South China Sea.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 16L (Otto)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Tokage)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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