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Oct
19
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Haima) is active…located about 206 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, with 3-day Cone of Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Haima

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, with 3-day Cone of Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Haima

Typhoon 25W (Haima) is active in the western Pacific…heading towards the Philippines

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

TC Sarika will continue to track west-northwestward through the next 48 hours…at approximately 16 knots.

In the extended hours, TC Haima is expected to cross the northern tip of the Philippines as a Category 4 Typhoon…with approximate wind speeds of 120 knots.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 120 knots with gusts of 145 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and three tropical disturbances with low chances of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and three tropical disturbances with low chances of developing within 2-days

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, being referred to as Invest 99E,

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

There is a second area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, being referred to as Invest 90E,

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves north or northwestward

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

There is a also a third area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, near Central America.

Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…40 percent

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

Also, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the North Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99B,

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally east-northeastward.

Maximum sustained winds as of the 19/1800Z JTWC Advisory  were 10 to 15 knots.

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) An elongated low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development during the next day or so, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

2.) Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 730 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a small area of low pressure. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development of this system is possible during the next several days while the disturbance drifts northward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

3.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific near Central America are associated with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development of this disturbance over the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…40 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Haima)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 89.8E,  APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, BURMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191503Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191258Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES A  FAVORABLE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 05-10 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A MODERATE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area