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Oct
19
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

There is an  area of convection circled in orange above…referred to as Invest 99L, located 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC, it has a medium chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

Atlantic Ocean

1) A broad, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased and become less organized since yesterday, environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for the low to acquire some tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. The low is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, then turn north-northeastward on Friday, and merge with a cold front over the western Atlantic by the weekend. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico