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Oct
18
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

There is an  area of convection circled in orange above…referred to as Invest 99L, located a couple hundred miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos.

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC, it has a medium chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

Atlantic Ocean

1) Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little better organized since yesterday in association with a well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos. The low is expected to acquire some tropical characteristics as upper-level winds become more conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone will likely form during the next few days. The low is forecast to move northward on Wednesday and turn northwestward on Thursday, before heading northeastward out to sea by the end of the week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico