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Oct
17
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (15L) Nicole remains active…located about 560 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model).

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model).

Hurricane 15L (Nicole) is moving north-northeastward in the Atlantic…as a Category 1 Hurricane.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this hurricane, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Hurricane Nicole is currently moving north-northeast at near 15 mph

Wind Speed Graphic for Hurricane Nicole

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: According to the NHC: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores islands for the next several days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwestern coast of Africa in a day or two.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

There is also an  area of convection circled in yellow above…referred to as Invest 99L, is located over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent western Atlantic

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC, it has a low chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nicole)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1) A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with a broad surface low. Upper-level winds are expected to remains unfavorable for significant development during the next day or two, but they could become more conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward. Locally heavy rainfall over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should diminish by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico