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Oct
14
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Sarika) remains active…located about 294 NM east of Manila, Philippines

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, with 3-day Cone of Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Sarika

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, withTAOS wind damage estimates for Tropical Cyclone Sarika

Tropical Storm 24W (Sarika) remains active in the Philippine Sea…heading towards an impact with Luzon

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

TS Sarika will continue to track slowly west-northwestward through the next 48 hours. Steady intensification is expected through the next 24 hours, as conditions improve. Sometime near the 36 hour point, the system is expected to make landfall over Luzon as a typhoon.

In the extended hours, TS Sarika is expected to resurface over the South China Sea weakened, although largely intact. Environmental conditions will be favorable for supporting a peak intensity of around 90 knots, before tracking over Hainan Island, China by the 96 hour point.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with a high (red) and low (yellow) chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with a high (red) and low (yellow) chance of developing within 24 hours

Meanwhile, there’s an  area of convection circled in red above…being referred to as Invest 94W, is located approximately 398 NM south-southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible …within the next 6 to 24 hours.

Dynamic models indicate gradual intensification within the next 24 hours, as the system tracks west-southwestward at 4 kts.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 18 to 23 knots…which has a high chance of developing within the next 24 hours.

There is also an  area of convection circled in yellow above…referred to as Invest 95W, is located approximately 435 NM northeast of Phonpei

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), conditions are unfavorable for development at this time.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10 to 15 knots…which has a low chance of developing within the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

In addition, there’s an  area of convection circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 92S… located approximately 475 NM east of Cocos Island

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a mostly exposed low level circulation center, with associated convection sheared to the south and beginning to weaken. Global models are in agreement with a that the system will track west over the next few days with little to no development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, being referred to as Invest 99E,

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a concentrated cluster of showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with medium (orange) and low (yellow) chances of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with medium (orange) and low (yellow) chances of developing within 2-days

Finally, there are two tropical disturbances in the central Pacific

The first is an area of low pressure, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

According to the CPHC, it has become better organized overnight…and a tropical depression may form later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent


The second is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 1200 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remain disorganized.

Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward near 15 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph..

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones.

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located 1300 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii have become better organized overnight. Although conditions are marginally favorable, a tropical depression may form later today. The system is moving northwest at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent

2.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located 1300 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii have become better organized overnight. Although conditions are marginally favorable, a tropical depression may form later today. The system is moving northwest at about 15 mph

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Sarika)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area