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Oct
13
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Aere) has become briefly active…located about 36 NM north of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Sarika) remains active…located about 456 NM east of Manila, Philippines

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Retiring Tropical Cyclone Aere

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Retiring Tropical Cyclone Aere

Tropical Depression 22W (Aere) regenerated in the South China Sea, although has already received its Final Warningas it begins moving inland over Vietnam

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a rapidly weakening system.

Due to the weakening trend observed in satellite imagery, the opportunity for additional intensification has likely passed.

TD Aere is expected to track westward, making landfall in the next 6-hours, and fully dissipate within 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, with 3-day Cone of Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Sarika

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, with 3-day Cone of Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclone Sarika

Tropical Storm 24W (Sarika) remains active in the Philippine Sea…heading towards an impact with Luzon

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system with formative cloud bands wrapping in from the north and west.

Upper air analysis shows improving outflow, while sea surface temperatures are very favorable.

TS 24W will continue to track slowly west-northwestward through the next 48 hours. Steady intensification is expected through the next 60 hours, as conditions improve. Sometime near the 60 hour point, the system is expected to make landfall over Luzon as a typhoon.

In the extended hours, TS Sarika is expected to resurface over the South China Sea weakened, although largely intact. Environmental conditions will be favorable for supporting a peak intensity of around 80 knots, before tracking over Hainan Island, China by the 120 hour point.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

Meanwhile, there’s an  area of convection circled in orange above…being referred to as Invest 94W, is located approximately 380 NM south-southeast of Anderson AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts broad turning with relatively disorganized convection, with signs of improved consolidation. In addition, satellite images reveal elongated turning beginning to form a low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis reveals a favorable environment, with low 5-10 knot wind shear and improved outflow.

Dynamic models indicate gradual intensification over the next 24-36 hours, as the system tracks west-northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots…which has a medium chance of developing within the next 24 hours.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours

In addition, there’s an  area of convection circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 92S… located approximately 325 NM south-southwest of Jakarta

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection, consolidating over the center.

The system is sitting in an area of mostly favorable environmental conditions, with good poleward divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures. However, it is currently being impacted by moderate to high 15-20 knot wind shear.

Global models are in agreement with a reduced chance significant development possible…as the system tracks westward and continues to move through an area of moderate to strong wind shear (25-30 knots).

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, being referred to as Invest 99E,

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a concentrated cluster of showers and thunderstorms, but there are no signs of a closed surface wind circulation.

Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with low chances of developing within 2-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and two tropical disturbances with low chances of developing within 2-days

Finally, there are two tropical disturbances in the central Pacific

The first is an area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next couple of days.

This area of disturbed weather is circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent


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The second is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 900 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remain disorganized.

Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward near 15 mph during the next couple of days.

This area of disturbed weather is circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a concentrated cluster of showers and thunderstorms, but there are no signs of a closed surface wind circulation. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Central North Pacific

1.) An area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

2.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 900 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remain disorganized. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward near 15 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Aere) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 24W

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area