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Sep
23
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi) is active over the northwest Pacific…located about 960 NM east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone Megi

Tropical Storm 20W (Megi) has spun up…as it moves generally in the direction of Taiwan and then the Chinese east coast

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version …along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images shows an expansive system with monsoon depression characteristics, which is slowly consolidating. Formative cloud bands have deepened…although remain fragmented.

Upper air analysis indicates the storm is in the vicinity of low wind shear, and excellent dual outflow. In addition, sea surface temperatures are exceptionally warm and conducive for further development.

TS 20W is expected to continue on a west-northwest track through its lifespan. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for steady intensification, reaching a peak of 90 knots within 72 hours…as the system drifts across the warm Philippine Sea.

In the extended period, TS Megi will cross southern Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, prior to making a second landfall in eastern China…shortly after 96 hours. Land interaction will be the primary cause of its rapid weakening.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather (circled in red on the PDC Atlas above)

Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 94E…along with what the computer models are showing

A broad area of low pressure is located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past several hours, there are still no signs of a well-defined surface circulation.

Environmental conditions are expected to support the development of a tropical depression over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly toward the northwest and then north at about 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

 

Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the central Pacific

Here’s a satellite image showing this area with a yellow X

A weak area of low pressure located about 630 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce unorganized showers and thunderstorms.

No significant development of this system is expected over the next couple of days as it moves slowly west.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

1.)  A broad area of low pressure is located about 800 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past several hours, there are still no signs of a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to support the development of a tropical depression over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly toward the northwest and then north at about 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of low pressure located about 630 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce unorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected over the next couple of days as it moves slowly west.

*  Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Megi)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area