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Sep
23
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (12L) Karl remains active…located about 225 miles south of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone (13L) Lisa remains active…located about 910 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa...and a tropical disturbance

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa…and a tropical disturbance

Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active, expected to have a close encounter with Bermuda…becoming a hurricane in the process

The worst-case scenario would be for Karl to approach or reach minimal hurricane strength…and pass very near Bermuda.

The NHC is suggesting that Karl will pass between 50 to 100 miles southeast of Bermuda, keeping the island on the weaker left-hand side of the storm. That would still be close enough to bring tropical storm-force conditions, so Bermuda could experience a brief period late tonight or early Saturday, with sustained winds of 40-60 mph with higher gusts, along with very heavy rain that could total 3 to 5 inches. The island will also be impacted by high surf and large swells.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 12L is moving towards the north at near 12 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a NOAA P3 flight continued to fly through Karl for a few hours after the release of the last advisory, and didn’t find winds higher than 50 knots. Microwave data indicate that Karl is still under the influence of 15-20 knots of south- southeasterly wind shear.

The convective pattern has continued to improve, with an elongated curved band extending to the northeast and east of the central convection. With sea surface temperatures remaining warm for the next 24 hours, and wind shear expected to decrease slightly, it seems likely that Karl will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days.

The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement on the intensification trend, and in fact most of the models are showing Karl reaching a strength between 60 and 65 knots in about 24 hours. Therefore, the updated official forecast now shows Karl reaching hurricane intensity at that time. Continued strengthening is likely after that time.

The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating within the next 24 hours, with the motion becoming even faster by 72 hours.

Since Karl is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 hours while the center is passing just to the east of Bermuda.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active…as it moves generally northwestward through the central Atlantic

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13L is moving towards the northwest at near 7 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Lisa’s center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep convection due to around 40 knots of southwesterly wind shear.

Strong shear is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This shear, in combination with a drying mid-level atmosphere and marginal sea surface temperatures, should result in weakening. Lisa is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.

The remnant low of Lisa is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days…and continue moving generally northwestward for the next 36 hours.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above, which has a low chance of developing within the next 2-5 days

A tropical wave located about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days.

Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.

A number of the computer models showed this storm becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean later next week.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kate)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lisa)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) A tropical wave located about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico