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Sep
22
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance that has a high chance of developing within 24-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance that has a high chance of developing within 24-hours

However, there’s an area of convection, being referred to as Invest 96W…which is located approximately 124 NM east-southeast of Yap

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a broad low level circulation center, with formative convective cloud banding over the western and southern quadrants.

Upper level analysis reveals a favorable environment with good outflow, and low wind shear. In addition, sea water temperatures along the track are also favorably warm.

Dynamic global guidance indicates gradual intensification over the next 24-36 hours, as the system tracks northwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 17-22 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical disturbances

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical disturbances

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather (circled in red on the PDC Atlas above)

Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 94E…along with what the computer models are showing

A large disturbance located about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure.

While this system is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity, there are no signs yet of a well- defined surface circulation.

However, environmental conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days.

This disturbance is forecast to move toward the northwest and then northward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Finally, there’s a second area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above)

Here’s a satellite image of this area, being referred to as Invest 95E…along with what the computer models are showing

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly westward into the central North Pacific basin during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Eastern North Pacific

1.)  A large disturbance located about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure. While this system is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity, there are no signs yet of a well- defined surface circulation. However, environmental conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to move toward the northwest and then northward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly westward into the central North Pacific basin during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area