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Sep
22
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (12L) Karl remains active…located about 525 miles south-southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone (13L) Lisa remains active…located about 710 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa

Tropical Depression 12L (Karl) remains active, expected to make a turn just before reaching Bermuda…as a tropical storm

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the island of Bermuda, as Karl may strengthen enough to spread tropical storm-force winds to the area before the storm turns to the northeast…and moves away from the island Saturday.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions (winds 39 mph or greater) are possible in the next 36-48 hours.

If tropical storm-force winds do occur in Bermuda, they would arrive starting Friday evening…Bermuda may also see 1-3 inches of rain from Karl.

High surf has already arrived in Bermuda and will continue into the weekend…along with dangerous rip currents.

Here’s the latest satellite image of this depression, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TD 12L is moving towards the northwest at near 17 mph.

Karl is still expected to take a sharp turn northeast during the weekend. How sharp this turn is, in relation to Bermuda, will help to determine how close it gets…bringing potential heavy weather. Residents and visitors of Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl through the rest of the week.

Otherwise, Karl is no threat to the United States, other than the generation of large ocean swells reaching the East Coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), even with visible satellite imagery this morning, Karl’s center has still been difficult to locate, and it’s unclear exactly how well defined it is. Deep convection has increased markedly since yesterday, but the overall cloud pattern is rather elongated from the east-southeast to the west-northwest.

Karl is moving northwestward and appears to have sped up to 15 knots. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by 36 hour,s and then accelerating northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies by 48 hours.

Karl lies right along the edge of a zone of higher wind shear to its west, and the various analyses are showing about 15 knots of southeasterly shear over the system. The global models continue to show the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of days, but there are differences. This continues to make the intensity forecast difficult.

>>> Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active…as it moves generally northwestward through the central Atlantic

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13L is moving towards the northwest at near 7 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a satellite pass showed that the center of Lisa is located near the southwestern edge of an area of bursting deep convection.

The restrengthening appears to have occurred despite the wind shear increasing to 30-35 knots, and the upper-level outflow has improved somewhat during the past few hours. However, the separation between the convection and the low-level center appears to be increasing, and Lisa will be moving into a region of even stronger southwesterly shear in the next 24 hours, which should result in weakening.

The shear is forecast to relax late in the period, but it is unlikely that Lisa will be able to recover and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. This is in agreement with the global models, which show the system decaying by that time.

The track forecast reasoning remains the same, however, with Lisa expected to move northwestward for the next 48 hours. After that time, Lisa or its remnants should recurve ahead of a large mid-latitude trough.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kate)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lisa)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico