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Sep
21
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance that has a high chance of developing within 24-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance that has a high chance of developing within 24-hours

However, there’s an area of convection, being referred to as Invest 96W…which is located approximately 250 NM northeast of Chuuk, FSM.

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a broad low level circulation center, with formative convective cloud banding over the western semi-circle of the center.

Upper level analysis reveals a favorable environment with near radial outflow, and low wind shear.

Dynamic global guidance agrees on a west-northwestward track towards Guam…with the closest approach within 24 hours…while intensifying steadily.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical disturbances

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with tropical disturbances

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather (circled in red on the PDC Atlas above)

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has not become any better organized since this time yesterday.

However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend.

This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days and then turn northward by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

>>> Finally, there’s a second area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above)

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated this morning in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Any additional development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Eastern North Pacific

1.)  Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has not become any better organized since this time yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days and then turn northward by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated this morning in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Any additional development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area