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Sep
21
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (12L) Karl remains active…located about 365 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone (13L) Lisa remains active…located about 580 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Cyclones Kate and Lisa

Tropical Depression 12L (Karl) remains active…making a turn before reaching Bermuda

Here’s the latest satellite image of this depression, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TD 12L is moving towards the west-northwest at near 9 mph.

Karl is still expected to take a sharp turn northeast during the weekend. How sharp this turn is, in relation to Bermuda, will help to determine how close it gets…possibly bringing some inclement weather. Residents and visitors of Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl through the rest of the week.

Otherwise, Karl is no threat to the United States, other than the eventual generation of large ocean swells reaching the East Coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a research flight by the NOAA P3 aircraft earlier this morning, had a difficult time closing off a well-defined center of circulation. However, this track looks like a reasonable center on early-morning visible satellite imagery. 

Most of the deep convection remains displaced well to the east of the center, but new convection has recently been developing just to the north and northwest.  

The depression is expected to turn northwestward later today. Karl should then turn northward and accelerate toward the northeast from 48 hours and beyond…once it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. 

The distance between Karl and the upper-level low, that has been adversely affecting it during the past couple of days, appears to be increasing a bit, and the wind shear over the cyclone has become south-southeasterly. Although the global models continue to indicate that the shear will decrease over the next few days, they do not agree on the direction of that shear.

In addition, the models do not agree on how much moisture there will be in the mid-level environment around the cyclone. As a result, the intensity forecast is complicated, and confidence is not very high. For continuity’s sake, the updated intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast during the first 3 days, and then it is a little lower at days 4 and 5 based on the latest guidance.

>>> Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active…as it moves generally northwestward through the central Atlantic

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13L is moving towards the northwest at near 8 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the cloud pattern of Lisa has not changed much since the previous advisory. There is only a small opportunity for the cyclone to strengthen before the wind shear increases in 24 to 36 hours.

Weakening is expected after that time, and later in the period, as the mid-level environment becomes quite dry, the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low.

Lisa will move northwestward during the next 72 hours, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on days 4 and 5.

This system is no threat to either the Caribbean basin or the United States east coast.


Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kate)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lisa)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico