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Sep
20
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Malakas) remains active over the northwest Pacific…located about 49 NM west of Yokosuka, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine) remains active in the eastern Pacific…located about 165 miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm 18W (Malakas)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm 18W (Malakas)

Tropical Storm 18W (Malakas) remains active…as it moves over Tokyo, Japan

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version / a near real time wind profile of TS Malakas

TS Malakas is clearly weakening rapidly as it crosses Honshu.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images shows a broad, ill-defined low level circulation center, with deep convection sheared to the northeast…due to the strong 50-60 knot westerly wind shear.

Surface observations across central Honshu indicate sustain winds less than 20 knots…with no defined circulation evident.

The current intensity is difficult to accurately assess over the rough terrain, however it is conservatively estimated at 40 knots…although could be lower.

TS 18W is forecast to track rapidly northeastward to east-northeastward…as the system continues to weaken rapidly due to land interaction, persistent strong wind shear, and cooler seas ahead.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #36 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours...with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing within 24-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing within 24-hours

Meanwhile, and area of convection, being referred to as Invest 96W, is located approximately 250 NM northeast of Chuuk, FSM.

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a broad and ill-defined low level circulation center, with disorganized although persistent convection.

Upper level conditions are favorable for further development, with good divergence, aided by low 5-10 knot wind shear.

Global models show further development over the next 3-days, as the system tracks west to west-northwestward towards the Mariana Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the broad and disorganized low level center, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Storm Paine…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 5-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Storm Paine…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 5-days

Tropical Storm 17E (Paine) remains active in the eastern Pacific…taking aim on the west coast of Baja California

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version, and what the computer models are showing…near real time wind profile of this hurricane

Tropical Storm Paine is moving towards the northwest at near 16 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), wind shear and cool waters continue to take a toll on Paine. The cloud pattern is rapidly losing organization, the the diminishing deep convection is displaced well northeast of the estimated low-level center position.

Rapid weakening is expected to continue due to more than 20 knots of wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Paine should weaken to a depression by tonight and become a remnant low by 24 hours, before it reaches the Baja California peninsula.

The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours, in agreement with the latest global model solutions.

Paine should gradually turn north-northeastward in the next 24 hours, and the increasingly shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed prior to dissipation.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine, or its remnants, is expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these areas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rain into portions of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, mainly in areas of favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Wind gusts to near tropical storm force are possible along portions of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight.


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Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange on the PDC Atlas above) which could become more organized well offshore from southern Mexico

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Although cloudiness and showers associated with this system are currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development during the next several days.

The low is forecast to move generally westward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then northward later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.)  A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although cloudiness and showers associated with this system are currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development during the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally westward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then northward later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.)  A weak area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Malakas)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area