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Sep
20
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone (12L) Karl remains active…located about 530 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Cyclone (13L) Lisa is active…located about 430 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

DC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Storms Kate and Lisa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, for Tropical Storms Kate and Lisa

Tropical Storm 12L (Karl) remains active…making a turn before reaching Bermuda

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 12L is moving towards the west at near 17 mph.

Karl is expected to become a hurricane south of Bermuda by Friday. Karl will then take a sharp turn northeast during the weekend. How sharp this turn is, in relation to Bermuda, will help to determine how close it gets to…possibly bringing heavy weather. Residents and visitors of Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl closely through the rest of the week.

Otherwise, Karl is no threat to the United States, other than the eventual generation of large ocean swells reaching the East Coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Karl’s center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep convection.Wind shear analyses indicate that the shear that has been affecting Karl has not yet decreased, but it is now southerly at around 15 knots. The global models continue to indicate that the shear should decrease during the next few days.

The thermodynamic environment has improved slightly since yesterday. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours, but after that time, intensification is expected due to warm sea surface temperatures, more moisture, and lower shear. The official intensity forecast continues to show Karl as a hurricane in the 3-5 day range.

Karl’s should turn northwestward by day 2, and then northward by day 4. After that time, the cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast, as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.

>>> Tropical Storm 13L (Lisa) remains active…as it moves generally westward through the central Atlantic

Here’s the latest satellite image of this storm, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

TS 13L is moving towards the northwest at near 12 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the previous advisory.

TS Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward for the next 4 days, followed by a northward turn. Lisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the wind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and sea-surface temperatures remain warm. However, a marginally moist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are expected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occurring.

Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile, characterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 knots and much drier mid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours.

This tropical cyclone does not pose a threat to the Caribbean Basin…or the east coast of the United States.

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kate)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lisa)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico