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Sep
19
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Malakas) remains active over the northwest Pacific…located about 132 NM south of Sasebo, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine) is active in the eastern Pacific…located about 380 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Typhoon 18W (Malakas)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Typhoon 18W (Malakas)

Typhoon 18W (Malakas) remains active over the East China Sea, expected to up along the east coast of the Japanese Islands

Typhoon Malakas is equivalent to a category 3 hurricane at the time of this writing.

Here’s a recent NASA satellite image of TY Malakas

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version / a near real time wind profile of TY Malakas

The closest approach of TC Malakas to the major city of Tokyo…is forecast to be within 7 NM. This will  likely bring disruptions to transportation in the area.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images shows the system has become elongated and lost convective depth, as it began to encounter wind shear…and the Japanese coast.

Upper level analysis indicates the system has drifted into strong 25-30 knot wind shear, which however is being partially offset by excellent outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

TY Malakas will continue to accelerate northeastward, as it becomes embedded deeper into the strong mid-latitude prevailing westerlies.

Landfall is occurring at the time of this writing, over Kyushu. TY Malakas will then drag across the southern coast of Japan. This land interaction, in addition to very strong wind shear aloft (40+ knots) will cause its rapid dissipation within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #32 were 100 knots with gusts of 125 knots.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Hurricane Paine…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 5-days

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Hurricane Paine…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 5-days

Hurricane 17E (Paine) remains active in the eastern Pacific…taking aim on the west coast of Baja California

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version, and what the computer models are showing…near real time wind profile of this hurricane

Here’s a NASA satellite image of Hurricane Paine

Hurricane Paine is moving towards the northwest at near 16 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a microwave pass showed that an impressive complete eyewall structure has developed in Paine. While the eye is not yet apparent in the standard infrared imagery, a transient eye has been seen in the shortwave infrared pictures.

Despite the very rapid intensification observed in Paine – 40 knots in 24 hours – it’s likely that the hurricane is at or very near its peak intensity. Its forecast track takes it over quite cold water in just a day, at the same time that the southwesterly wind shear becomes moderate to high. Thus the NHC intensity forecast shows steady weakening until Paine becomes a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.

The tropical cyclone should recurve to the north in about a day, and then decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level steering flow just west of northern Baja California.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico, and on into the southwestern United States deserts during the next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these areas.

Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough to the west coast of Baja California, that tropical-storm-force winds are possible. Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the northwestern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the area by Tuesday night.


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Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow on the PDC Atlas above)which could form offshore from southern Mexico

An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico.

Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 17E (Paine)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.)  An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days well to the southwest of southwestern Mexico. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Malakas)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area