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Feb
20
2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 90 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

DC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…and is now re-intensifying over open waters after making landfall in Fiji recently

TC Winston is the first Category 5 tropical cyclone on record to hit Fiji…which is equivalent to what’s called a super typhoon in the western Pacific.

Here’s a satellite image of this very strong and dangerous tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This is the
looping radar image from Fiji…along with satellite loops showing when the storm went over parts of Fiji

This tropical cyclone is located about 90 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a ragged 14 NM eye, having moved across the northern portion of Viti Levu, Fiji. TC Winston has started to regain its intense core with deep convection beginning to once again surround the eye feature…which has re-emerged over water.

The tropical cyclone’s eye continues pulling away from Viti Levu, and conditions will slowly improve as Winston pulls westward out to sea.

The current environment remains favorable with 10-15 knot wind shear aloft, offset by strong diffluence…along with favorably inclined warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Winston continues to track westward at 16 knots, and will remain on this course through 24 hours. During the next 12-24 hours this tropical cyclone will continue to reconsolidate, and then strengthen once again under the favorable environment mentioned above


Near the 48 hour forecast point, TC 11P will reach a secondary maximum intensity…at which point sustained winds will reach near 130 knots.

Thereafter, this storm, as it moves poleward, will encounter moderate to strong wind shear and rapidly decreasing sea surface temperatures. These degraded environmental conditions will begin the final weakening trend.

In the extended forecast period, as the tropical cyclone falls back into the tropical storm category, it will take a turn westward once again.

The Fiji Broadcasting Corporation reported that an elderly man was killed when a roof fell on him.

There are no other reports of fatalities, and the full extent of the damage “is yet to be ascertained,” according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

These are some recent pictures of this storm lashing Fiji and environs.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #30 were 140 knots with gusts of 170 knots

This is the strongest tropical cyclone to ever threaten the South Pacific island of Fiji! It’s expected to make a direct hit on the Fiji Saturday. 

These are the tracks of all category 1 and great tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji’s main island of Viti Levu…since 1941.

This is a Special Weather Statement for Tropical Cyclone Winston – from the Fiji Meteorological Service:

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY NINE for Fiji 
ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:05am on Sunday the 21st of February 2016 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [920HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH 176.3 EAST OR ABOUT 80KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VIWA OR ABOUT 130KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI AT 3AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 25KM/HR.  CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
315KM/HR. 

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 230KM
WEST-SOUTHWET OF VIWA OR ABOUT 280KM WEST OF NADI 3PM TODAY AND ABOUT
310KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VIWA OR ABOUT 360M WEST OF NADI AT 3AM
TOMORROW.

FOR MAMANUCA GROUP:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 110KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 155KM/HR. WINDS EASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 85KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 120KM/HR IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR YASAWA GROUP:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 65KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 90KM/HR.WINDS EASING TO STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 55KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 80 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 50KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 75 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES FROM CENTRE.GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area