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May
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 780 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3-5 day error cones for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and 3-5 day error cones for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)

Tropical Storm 01E (Andres) continues to strengthen…and will become a category 1 hurricane soon

Here’s a real-time wind profile of the eastern north Pacific…showing tropical storm Andres

Here’s a NOAA looping satellite image – along with a recent NASA satellite picture

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 780 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northeastward at 10 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Andres is just below hurricane strength. Although an eye feature is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours.

Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric with well-defined cloud banding to the south of the center, and more fragmented bands to the north of the center.

Wind shear over the storm is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but will likely lessen some thereafter. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, while the tropical cyclone remains over warm water. Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into a drier and more stable air mass. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system to weaken.

The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 knots. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move northwestward during the next day or two. After that time, a turn back to the west-northwest is predicted, when a high pressure ridge restrengthens to the north of the storm.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the NHC’s warning #6, were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots. The National Hurricane Center expects Andres’ winds to peak on May 31st near 90 mph…before a weakening trend begins.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing – along with an animated version of the GFS model

At the same time, there’s continues to be an area of disturbed weather to the east of tropical storm Andres, although as was the case yesterday, it has a low zero chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Here’s a satellite image of this area in yellow, along with Andres a distance to the west.

This first tropical cyclone of the season, is expected to remain far enough offshore from the Mexican coast…that there will be no threat to land. The first named storm of the season typically become active around June 10th, which makes Andres almost two weeks ahead of schedule.

According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms, the formation of a tropical storm in May in the Eastern Pacific is not that unusual however, as 33 named storms have formed in May in the 45 years…since satellite records began back in 1970.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, at least 2°F above average in this area, with the strengthening El Niño largely responsible. El Nino conditions typically support increased hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins…so that many other tropical cyclones are likely to follow Andres lead in the eastern Pacific.

According to NOAA, the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season.

The main climate factor expected to enhance the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season is El Niño, which is now present and is predicted to last throughout the hurricane season. Many models predict this El Niño to strengthen further as the season progresses.

El Niño decreases the wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño is already affecting the wind and rainfall patterns across the equatorial and subtropical Pacific Ocean.

Also, the sea surface temperatures patterns that have been associated with decreased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific since 1995 are not expected during the 2015 season, and are therefore not expected to compete with El Niño’s conducive wind patterns.

For the 2015 hurricane season, NOAA estimates a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity:

  • 15-22 named storms,
  • 7-12 hurricanes,
  • 5-8 major hurricanes


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)  

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.  A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for development early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…30 percent

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area