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May
28
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres) is now active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 690 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)

Tropical Storm 01E (Andres) is now active in the northeast Pacific, the first of the 2015 hurricane season…and expected to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane between 24-36 hours

Here’s a real-time wind profile of the eastern north Pacific…showing TS Andres

Here’s a NOAA looping satellite image – along with a NASA satellite picture taken today

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 690 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico…moving west-northeastward at 14 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to expand this morning. This convection has also become better organized with an increase in cloud banding.

TS Andres is located to the south and southwest of a mid-level ridge of high pressure, that extends from south-central Mexico, west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific. This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the next several days, and should cause Andres to move west-northwestward to northwestward.

After 48 hours, track guidance spread increases, with some models taking Andres on a more northerly track, while others maintain a northwesterly motion. 

Warm water and low wind shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for steady strengthening. The updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 36 hrs…than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone will be approaching slightly cooler waters, which should induce weakening by the end of the forecast period.

This first tropical cyclone of the season, is expected to remain far enough offshore from the Mexican coast…that there should be no threat to land. The first named storm of the season typically become active around June 10th, which is almost two weeks ahead of schedule.

According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms, the formation of a tropical storm in May in the Eastern Pacific is not that unusual however, as 33 named storms have formed in May in the 45 years…since satellite records began back in 1970.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, at least 2°F above average in this area, with the strengthening El Niño largely responsible. 

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the NHC’s warning #2, were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing – along with an animated version of the GFS model

At the same time, there’s an area of disturbed weather to the east of TS Andres, although at this time, it has a low zero chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Here’s a satellite image of this area in yellow, along with Andres a distance to the west.


Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Andres)  

NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.  A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…20 percent

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area