Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

May
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulations

The two areas of disturbed weather that have been present most of the past week, are still showing up today. The big difference since yesterday, is that the disturbance circled in orange above, is showing more of an inclination to develop.

The area that’s being referred to as Invest 91E, which is the area further west, is located unusually far west in the eastern Pacific. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this area. Interestingly, several of the models want to bring this potential system westward across the 140W line of longitude, into the Central Pacific.

The second area, which is being referred to as Invest 92E, remains offshore to the south of the southern Mexican coast, and is by far the most likely to spin-up into the first tropical cyclone of the 2015 hurricane season. If this were to occur, it would become tropical depression 01E…and if it were to strengthen further it would become tropical storm Andres.

Here’s the NHC 5-day outlook for these two areas

Here’s a real-time wind profile of the eastern north Pacific…showing several counterclockwise rotating minor vortices.

Here’s what the GFS model shows in relation to Invest 92E forming, deepening…and moving northward generally in the direction of Baja California. Click on the FWD button on the right to begin the animation.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of these areas…along with the looping version


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.  Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…90 percent

2.  A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of this system is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…10 percent

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area