Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Apr
30
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 279 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying  tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)

Tropical Cyclone (Quang) had a rapid intensification during the last 24 hours, over what was expected…although is forecast to quickly weaken as it approaches the northwest coast of Australia

A near current NASA satellite image of this tropical cyclone…with a small eye showing at its center

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 24S – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 279 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia…moving southeastward at 15 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), IR satellite imagery shows an elongated central dense overcast feature, with a small eye feature near the center. In addition, water vapor imagery shows that the spiral banding has weakened significantly…due to dry air wrapping around the system.

Upper air analysis shows a moderate, but weakening environment, with 20-25 knot northwesterly wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #6, were 105 knots…with gusts to 130 knots.

Here’s what the global models are showing for potential tracks

Here’s a satellite image of this area in the South Indian Ocean

According to the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)

Hazards:

Windy conditions are expected to develop about the far northwest of the state Friday morning, with gales possible near the NW Cape later this morning if the system moves faster than forecast. Gales could extend throughout the coastal areas between Mardie and Coral Bay later on Friday, and reach remaining areas between Mardie and Carnarvon Saturday morning.

Heavy rain may develop over parts of the Gascoyne and western Pilbara over the weekend as the remnants of Quang tracks southeast over land

Recommended Action:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Onslow and Cape Cuvier including Onslow, Exmouth, Nanutarra, Ningaloo and Coral Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Here’s the BOM Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are forecast to develop over the next few days.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

In addition to TC Quang above…there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92W, and is located approximately 125 NM west-southwest of Chuuk.

Satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with flaring convection…with minimal convection over the center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderately strong 10-15 knot wind shear…offset by excellent divergence aloft.

Weather models show possible weak development of this disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The JTWC is giving this area a low potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.

According to the National Weather Service office in Tiyan, Guam

A BENIGN PATTERN WILL BE INTERRUPTED THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU GUAM AND ROTA.

FRIDAY THE DRY PATTERN WILL RESUME FOR ABOUT ONE DAY. THEN ON SATURDAY…THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD…FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 6N WILL REACH THE MARIANAS.

THIS SYSTEM (invest 92W) WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BEGINNING MONDAY…A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MARIANAS.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea