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Apr
29
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 494 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)

Tropical Cyclone (Quang) will likely fall just short of reaching 65 knots…eventually impacting the northwest Australian coast as a much weaker system

A near current NASA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 24S – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 494 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia…moving west-southwestward at 07 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this system has continued to steadily consolidate and intensify during the past 12 hours…under the influence of favorable upper level conditions and passage over a warm sea surface.

In the short term, strong poleward outflow and warm water should support additional strengthening. However, increasing upper level shear, and decreasing sea surface temperatures will weaken the system after 24 hours. Additional wind shear will come into play within 36 hours, causing a more effective weakening before it strikes the coast. 

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #2, were 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots.

Here’s what the global models are showing for potential tracks

Here’s a satellite image of this area in the South Indian OceanThe forecast track has TC Quang moving southwest, although soon has it taking a turn to the south and finally southeast. TC’s Quang’s is forecast to approach Coral Bay, Australia on Saturday. Currently, there are no warnings in effect over land…because the storm is still well out to sea.

According to the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)

Tropical Cyclone Quang (Category 2) was located at 8 pm WST near 15.9S 109.1E, that is 850 km northwest of Exmouth and moving south southwest at 8 kilometers per hour. Quang is expected to continue developing as it moves south overnight and then to the southeast tomorrow. The cyclone is then expected to weaken as it moves closer to the far northwest of the state on Friday.

Here’s the BOM Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are forecast to develop over the next few days.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Quang)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea