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Apr
02
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 681 NM east of Manila, Philippines

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak), with an area of tropical disturbance (circled in red) with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak), with an area of tropical disturbance (circled in red) with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon 04W (Maysak) remains active, and is moving away from Yap…on its way towards Luzon Island in the Philippines. This impressive storm is now beginning its weakening phase, although is still the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite imageHere’s a recent close-up looping satellite image of this storm.

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 681 NM east of Manila, Philippines…moving west-northwestward at 9 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the system will impact the Philippines as a tropical storm.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W (Maysak) – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

~~~ Here’s the forecast track for Maysak coming out of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), along with the following information:

FOR: TYPHOON WITH INTERNATIONAL NAME “Chedeng” (international name: Maysak)
ISSUED AT: 11:00 PM, 02 ARPIL 2015

At 10:00 pm today, The eye of the typhoon with local name “Chedeng” was located based on all available data at 885 km east of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4°N, 132.4°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 165 kph near the center and gustiness of up to200 kph. It is forecast to move northwest at 15 kph.

It is estimated to make landfall over eastern coast of Aurora-Isabela area by Sunday evening (April 5), will exit the landmass via Ilocos Sur by Monday morning (April 6) and will exit PAR by Monday evening (April 6).

See PAGASA bulletin for recommended actions

~~~

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) and 3 hour precipitation accumulations, with an area of tropical disturbance (circled in red) with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) and 3 hour precipitation accumulations, with an area of tropical disturbance (circled in red) with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 99W, was located approximately 190 NM southeast of Pohnpei. 

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 99W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, with two areas of tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations, with two areas of tropical disturbance (circled in yellow) with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

Finally, there are two areas of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in yellow above…with a low chance of developing

Here’s a JTWC satellite image showing this area

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 91S, and for Invest 93S.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 160.7E  IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 020306Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB. A 012220Z SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRAIGHT LINE CONVERGENCE CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 021343Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE, AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 021409Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea