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Apr
01
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 194 NM northwest of Yap

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)

Super Typhoon 04W (Maysak) remains active, and is moving away from Yap…on its way towards Luzon Island in the Philippines. This impressive storm is now beginning its weakening phase, although is still the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite imageHere’s a recent close-up looping satellite image of this powerful storm!

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 194 NM northwest of Yap…moving northwestward at 12 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system has maintained its 15 NM eye, although it appears to be weakening slightly…as there’s been an increase in dry air being pulled into the system.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 04W remains in an area of favorable conditions, with moderate 10-20 knot wind shear aloft…along with very good poleward outflow.

As this super typhoon continues towards the northwest, it is expected to gradually weaken after the next 12 hours…as it encounters increased wind shear.

This weakening trend will continue along the way towards landfall in the northern Philippine Islands. The forecast has Maysak tracking through central Luzon Island, weakening further due to the land interaction.

However, as the system will impact the Philippines as a 85 knot typhoon, the expectations are that this system will push out into the South China Sea…at a low level typhoon strength, continuing in a northwesterly direction.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #23, were 130 knots…with gusts to 160 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W (Maysak) – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

This unusually early start to typhoon season is due in part to warmer than normal sea water temperatures in the typhoon generating area just west of the International Date Line, between 5 – 10° latitude. This is due to the weak El Niño event that’s occurring early this year. Water temperatures there are about 2 – 3.5°F warmer than average.

This super typhoon will drop back into typhoon strength well before impacting the eastern coast of the Luzon island in the Philippines, although still be able to bring high winds, very high surf along with localized storm surge…and flooding rainfall.

This week there will be a lot of people out traveling, especially as we get into the weekend time frame…during the Holy Week in the Philippines. This means many people will be away from their homes and on ferries and cars traveling…which will put people at a higher risk of weather related dangers.

~~~ Here’s the forecast track for Maysak coming out of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), along with the following information:

FOR: TYPHOON WITH INTERNATIONAL NAME “MAYSAK”
ISSUED AT: 11:00 AM, 01 ARPIL 2015

At 10:00 am today, The eye of the typhoon with international name “MAYSAK” was located based on all available data at 1,280 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.7°N, 137.4°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 215 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 250 kph. It is forecast to move west northwest at 17 kph.

This typhoon is still too far to affect any part of the country. It is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between tonight until tomorrow morning and will be named “CHEDENG”.

~~~ The following information comes from the NWS office in Guam –

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015 
200 AM CHST THUR APR 2 2015 (local time)

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK MAINTAINING INTENSITY... 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE 

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 135.1E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 320 MILES NORTH OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH 
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.1 EAST...MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TAKING MAYSAK STEADILY 
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 150 MPH. MAYSAK IS STILL EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 99W, was located approximately 345 NM southeast of Pohnpei. 

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with this system remains very broad, and continues to be disorganized.

Upper level analysis reveals that the environment is marginal favorable, with moderately strong wind shear…and good poleward outflow.

Weather model development of this system has decreased significantly from 24 hours ago, with only some development past 96 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 99W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 91S, was located approximately 670 NM south of Diego Garcia.  

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows a broad and partially exposed low level circulation center, with persistent curved convective cloud banding along the eastern periphery.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) wind shear, partially offset by decent poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 91S

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea