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Mar
31
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 60 NM northeast of Yap

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)

Super Typhoon 04W (Maysak) remains active, and is moving by a short distance north of Yap and well north of Palau…on its way towards Luzon Island in the Philippines. This impressive storm is now the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this super typhoon…taken today –

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite imageHere’s close-up looping satellite image of this incredibly powerful storm!

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 60 NM northeast of Yap…moving westward at 14 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system continues to intensify and deepen, with a 17 NM eye.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 04W remains in an area of favorable conditions, with low 5-10 knot wind shear aloft…along with very good poleward outflow.

These environment factors will allow a continued intensification…reaching a peak strength of 155 knots, with gusts to near 190 knots within 24 hours. ST Maysak is generating 40-foot high seas.

As this super typhoon continues towards the west-northwest, it is expected to gradually weaken…as it encounters increased wind shear beyond 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #20, were 140 knots…with gusts to 170 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W (Maysak) – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Super Typhoon Maysak is bringing severe weather to the islands of Yap State in Micronesia’s Caroline Islands. ST Maysak’s top sustained winds were reaching 160 mph, making it one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Northwestern Pacific prior to April.

This unusually early start to typhoon season is due in part to warmer than normal sea water temperatures in the typhoon generating area just west of the International Date Line, between 5 – 10° latitude. This is due to the weak El Niño event that’s occurring early this year. Water temperatures there are about 2 – 3.5°F warmer than average.

This super typhoon will drop back into typhoon strength well before impacting the eastern coast of the Luzon island in the Philippines, although still able to bring high winds, very high surf along with localized storm surge…and flooding rainfall.

The JTWC forecast has Maysak at a Category 3 level on Saturday, and dropping back to Category 1 or 2 typhoon status as it impacts Luzon Island on Easter Sunday.

This system will weaken significantly as it interacts with the physical terrain features of Luzon. The most recent JTWC forecast doesn’t yet show what this tropical system will do…as it punches out over the warm waters of the South China Sea.

This week there will be a lot of people out traveling, especially as we get into the weekend time frame…during the Holy Week in the Philippines. This means many people will be away from their homes and on ferries and cars traveling…which of course puts people at a higher risk of weather related dangers.

The following information comes from the NWS office in Guam –

Here’s the NWS Guam forecast track for 04W

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 PM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR ULITHI

...DANGEROUS SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSING FAIS AND NEARING ULITHI...

AREAS AFFECTED... 
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS 
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP IN YAP STATE.

WATCHES/WARNINGS... 
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 3 TO
4 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING AT ULITHI. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. 
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 
MIDNIGHT AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AROUND DAWN...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

STORM INFORMATION... 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 140.7E

ABOUT  30 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT  80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH 
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW... 
TYPHOON MAYSAK HAS MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO FAIS AND 
CONTINUES TOWARD ULITHI IN YAP STATE. THE TYPHOON IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OF MAYSAK JUST NORTH OF  
ULITHI AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF YAP 
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY 5 
TYPHOON WITH 160 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO 
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...FAIS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED! TYPHOON MAYSAK IS 
NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON ON A CATEGORY SCALE WITH 5 BEING 
THE STRONGEST. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. 
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MOVES AWAY FROM FAIS. WEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100 
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND 
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT 
AND REDUCE FURTHER TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY SUNRISE. 

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... 
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 20 TO 30 FEET MAY BE OCCURRING WITH TYPHOON MAYSAK'S
CLOSEST APPROACH. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET AND 
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 8 TO 12 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES WILL 
BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 FEET BY SUNRISE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING 
AREAS.

...ULITHI...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED! TYPHOON MAYSAK
IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 ON A CATEGORY SCALE WITH 5 BEING
THE STRONGEST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEGUN
AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. MAKE SURE YOU 
HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

UPDATED WIND CONDITIONS AT 31 MARCH 1200 UTC (10PM CHST)

...WIND INFORMATION...

TYPHOON MAYSAK IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 160 MPH 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHEN IT APPROACHES ULITHI. WINDS IN EXCESS OF
100 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR...9 TO 10 PM CHST...
AS THE SOUTHERN EYE WALL WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSING ALONG
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE ATOLL. THESE EXTREME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEAKEN TO 40 TO 60 MPH FOR ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 40 MPH BY DAWN.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... 
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF TYPHOON MAYSAK. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25 
FEET AND COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 10 FEET WITH COMPLETE OVERWASH
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...YAP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING ON YAP AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES NORTH OF THE
ISLAND. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
ENSURE THAT FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO
A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH 
WINDS OF 160 MPH WHEN IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF YAP LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DURING THIS TIME
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF YAP. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL FURTHER
DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY NOON.  

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND 
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 22 FEET AND COASTAL 
INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES IS POSSIBLE 
DURING THE PASSAGE OF MAYSAK.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF MAYSAK. LOCAL 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in yellow above…has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 99W, was located approximately 265 NM south of Kosrae. 

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with this system remains disorganized.

Upper level analysis reveals that the environment is marginal, with moderately strong wind shear…and good poleward outfloww.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 15-20 knots (17-23 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 99W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, circled in yellow above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 91S, was located approximately 460 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows a broad and elongated low level circulation center, with flaring convection.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with low to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) wind shear, partially offset by good poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 91S

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea