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Mar
30
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 398 NM east of Yap

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)

Tropical cyclone 04W (Maysak) remains active, and is forecast to move well south of Guam, just north of Yap, and well north of Palau, on its way towards the Philippines. Typhoon Maysak is the third typhoon of the year…setting a record for the most typhoons so early in the year.

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 398 NM east of Yap…moving westward at 12 mph.

Typhoon Maysak first impacted Chuuk State, a group of Micronesian islands about 600 miles southeast of Guam this past weekend. Winds gusted as high as 71 mph at the Chuuk International Airport on Sunday.

Tuesday into Wednesday (local time) the island of Yap, which has a population of approximately 11,000 people, will encounter the impact of this Typhoon. By that time this system moves by just to the north of Yap, it is expected to have intensified into the equivalent of a Category 4 Major Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  The only good thing about this passage, will be that the most intense part of this typhoon may be over the ocean to the north of Yap. Nonetheless, it will very likely bring severe weather conditions to that small island.

Meanwhile, Guam will remain well north of the center of this typhoon’s passage. However, there’s a chance that the system’s outer rain bands and perhaps higher than normal surf, will reach far enough north…that the southwest, southeast, and east sides of Guam may be effected.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with a 14 NM ragged eye. In addition, satellite pictures show tightly curved cloud banding, wrapping into the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 04W remains in an area of favorable conditions…along with warm sea surface temperatures. These environment factors will allow a continued intensification…reaching a peak strength of 120 knots within 36 hours.

As this typhoon gains latitude, it is expected to gradually weaken…as it encounters increased wind shear of 15-20 knots aloft.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #15, were 95 knots…with gusts to 115 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

It’s likely that this typhoon will impact the eastern coasts of the islands in the Philippine chain, bringing high winds, very high surf along with localized storm surge…and flooding rainfall. This will be the case over the central islands and Luzon, with the storm expected to move by close to Manila late this week.

Beyond the five day JTWC forecast point, the exact path of the storm is uncertain. This is due to the high pressure to the north starting to weaken, allowing Maysak to slow down while moving across the Philippine Sea. This should allow the storm to weaken some, but continue its path westward…making landfall as a Typhoon somewhere in Luzon or Visayas.

This coming week there will be a lot of people out traveling, especially as we get into the upcoming weekend…during the Holy Week in the Philippines. This means many people will be away from their homes and on ferries traveling…which of course puts people at a higher risk of weather related dangers.

The following information comes from the NWS office in Guam –

Here’s the NWS Guam forecast track for 04W

TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 200 AM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015 

EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVING AWAY FROM FARAULEP IN YAP STATE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS –

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN HEAVY SHOWERS.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST…1500 UTC
INFORMATION – LOCATION…9.1N 144.1E

ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST…280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK – 

THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1 EAST…MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.

MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE EYE OF MAYSAK THROUGH YAP STATE VERY CLOSE TO FAIS THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 110 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. 


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W (Maysak)  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea