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Mar
27
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 04W is now active in the northwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 100 NM west-northwest of Pohnpei

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 04W

Tropical cyclone 04W is active, and is forecast to move just north of Chuuk, well south of Guam, just north of Yap, and well north of Palau..perhaps on its way towards the Philippines next week

Here’s a real-time wind profile of TC 04W – along with a NOAA looping satellite image

This tropical cyclone was located approximately 100 NM west-northwest of Pohnpei…moving west-northwestward at 10 mph.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deepened central convection with formative cloud bands wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates that TC 04W remains in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by excellent poleward outflow.

TC 04W is forecast to have a steady intensification, as environment conditions aloft remain very favorable…in addition to passage over a very warm sea surface.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the JTWC’s warning #3, are 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots.

Here’s computer model track guidance for 04W – along with a NOAA satellite image of this tropical cyclone

It’s too early to know how this strengthening tropical cyclone will influence the Philippine Islands. The JTWC shows this storm reaching typhoon strength in about 72 hours…as it moves into the Philippine Sea. Some of the weather models show this system turning to the northwest and north, which would keep it from impacting the Philippine Islands. On the other hand, there are models that continue the JTWC track more or less in a west-northwest track…which would bring it into the east coast of the Philippines next week.

Nonetheless, this storm will be influencing several smaller islands over the next several days. The following information comes from the NWS office in Guam –

Here’s the NWS Guam forecast track for 04W

TROPICAL STORM 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GAM
300 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015 (local time)

TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE…

AREAS AFFECTED… THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK…LOSAP…FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE. .

WATCHES/WARNINGS… TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK…LOSAP…FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

STORM INFORMATION… AT 1 AM CHST…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

SITUATION OVERVIEW… TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL MOVE WEST TODAY…CROSSING INTO CHUUK STATE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…THEN PASS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 25 MILES SOUTH OF FANANU LATER ON SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… …LOSAP AND CHUUK… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON…SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FANANU… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING…SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ULUL… PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING…SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY…INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET TONIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURF INFORMATION… DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04W  

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea