Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Mar
26
2015

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulations

There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwest Pacific Ocean, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance, which is being referred to as Invest 98W, was located approximately 115 NM east of Pohnpei. If the system does develop, it could impact Guam with rain and wind with time.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image showing this area…and in the looping mode

Satellite imagery shows a large area of convection, with formative cloud banding over the northern semi-circle…wrapping into a slowly developing low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis reveals this system is in an area of low to moderate 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) wind shear…and good poleward outflow. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures are conducive for development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are 18-23 knots (21-27 mph).

Here’s computer model track guidance for Invest 98W – and a NOAA satellite image of this tropical disturbance.

Some of the computer models show this system turning northwest and north before reaching the Philippines, while others bring it into the central Philippines…time will tell.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is saying that the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

The NWS office in Guam has issued a Special Weather Statement –

CHUUK-POHNPEI – 1000 PM CHST THU MAR 26 2015


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN POHNPEI STATE…


A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIDED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM PINGELAP IN POHNPEI STATE TO BE NEAR 6.5N 160.1E. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL…135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI AND 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.


THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER MOKIL TONIGHT AND POHNPEI AND PAKIN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED WEST OF THE CENTER.


AT THIS TIME ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH.
ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE THE ISLANDS OF MOKIL…POHNPEI AND PAKIN. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME. ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE SHOULD KEEP ADVISED ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2015.

Tropical Cyclone Reports – 2014

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea