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Sep
25
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

http://www.pdc.org/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Timor-Sea1-1024x687.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Kammuri) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 399 NM
southeast of Iwo To – Tropical Storm

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Rachel) remains active in the northeast Pacific…located approximately 455 miles south of
the southern tip of Baja California Tropical Storm

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, along with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 17W (Kammuri)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, along with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 17W (Kammuri)

Tropical cyclone 17W (Kammuri) remains active in the NW Pacific…although staying away from land

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this storm.

According to the JTWC, the center of TS 17W (Kammuri), using warning #5…is located approximately 399 NM southeast of Iwo To.

Satellite imagery shows a large round figure, with tightly curved cloud banding…wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates a a very favorable environment, with low wind shear (5-10 knots) and excellent outflow channels.

TD 17W is expected to continue tracking northwestward at near 7 mph…although then take a turn to the north and northeast…keeping this tropical storm well offshore of the Japanese coast.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots.

TD 17W is forecast to intensify steadily through the next 48 hours, becoming a typhoon, with a peak strength of 75 knots by the 72 hour point. There are no land areas in the current path of this system…although the small island of Iwo To will likely see heavy weather moving by just to the east within 2 days. The center of this, what will be a typhoon…is forecast to pass within 180 NM of Iwo To.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, along with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 18E (Rachel)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, along with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 18E (Rachel)

Tropical cyclone 18E (Rachel) remains offshore of the southern Mexican coast…having become tropical storm Rachel

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm 18E is located approximately 455 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California…and is moving west-northwestward at near 13 mph.

Sustained winds are estimated  to be 50 mph, with some higher gusts.

The northeasterly wind shear that has been affecting TS Rachel during the past day or so, appears to be decreasing. The wind shear is expected to further decrease over the next 24 to 36 hours, and additional strengthening is likely during this period – although not quite reaching hurricane strength.

After 48 hours, Rachel will be moving over a slightly cooler sea surface, and into a drier airmass…which should cause steady weakening late in the forecast period.

Rachel should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a middle level high pressure ridge over Mexico…during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a trough of low pressure, approaching the west coast of the United States, will create a break in the ridge…which should cause Rachel to turn northwestward.

During the 3 to 5 day period, there continues to be large differences in the model solutions. Some of the models take the cyclone northward, then northeastward, while others show a weaker tropical cyclone becoming nearly stationary well southwest of the Baja peninsula. The NHC track leans toward the more northward solution by days 4 and 5.

The NHC forecast track keeps this slowly strengthening tropical cyclone well offshore from the Mexican coast…sparring it the associated winds and rains.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 18E (Rachel)  

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 17W (Kammuri)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea