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Aug
05
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

http://www.pdc.org/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Timor-Sea1-1024x687.jpg

Tropical Cyclone (Iselle) is active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 1030 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone (Julio) is active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 1145 miles  west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone (Genevieve) is active in the central Pacific…located approximately 1175 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Halong) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 351 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Hurricane Iselle, Tropical Storm Julio, and Tropical Depression Genevieve

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Hurricane Iselle, Tropical Storm Julio, and Tropical Depression Genevieve

Tropical Cyclone Iselle remains active in the northeastern Pacific, and will be passing into the central Pacific today…on its way towards the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a good NASA satellite image that was taken at near peak strength on August 4th.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this hurricane continues to move towards the west at about 10 mph. This path will shift more west-northwest later in the day…and pick up speed into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained wind speeds, based on advisory #21 were 125 mph, with higher gusts. This makes Iselle a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Wind shear analyses indicates that the upper level winds are increasing, thus the near perfectly shaped round look of this tropical cyclone over the last several days…will become more stretched today into the night.

In addition to this more stretched cloud structure, Iselle will be moving over cooler sea water temperatures along its forecast path, and reaching drier air going forward…all of which will induce a steady weakening from here on out.

The current NHC track brings, what is forecast to become a tropical storm…through the Hawaiian Islands Thursday evening through Friday. If this forecast remains accurate, Hawaii would experience blustery winds, heavy rains…along with high surf conditions. The potential flooding may become very serious to the Hawaiian Islands. Rainfall is expected to range between 4.00 to 8.00″…with some extreme totals of 10-12+ inches locally.

According to the NWS, interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Iselle. However, it’s important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts, because the average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles…and the average intensity error is about 17 mph.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters’ jet are scheduled to fly into Iselle this evening, and an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly a mission into the hurricane early Wednesday morning. This data will help forecasters at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) analyze the potential dangers to the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a current satellite image of this hurricane.

 

Tropical Cyclone Julio remains active in the northeastern Pacific as a tropical storm…on his way to becoming a hurricane.

Here’s a NASA satellite image taken of Julio today…along with Invest 98E to the east (referred to further down this page)

According to the NHC, tropical storm Julie continues to be under the influence of wind shear from a northeasterly direction.

Despite this wind shear however, tropical storm Julio is forecast to become a hurricane within 24 hours. Once this category 1 hurricane blossoms, it will remain at or near that strength through about 120 hours.

At the time of this writing, and based on NHC advisory #7,  tropical Storm Julio had maximum sustained winds near 60 mph, with higher gusts. The NHC expects TS Julio to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

The NHC track keeps Julio moving in a generally west-northwest through Saturday. Part of this time will have Julio in the eastern Pacific, then reaching the central Pacific, still as a hurricane Thursday night. The forecast keeps Julio as a lower level category 1 hurricane…as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands later this coming weekend.

Rainfall could be the most threatening weather influence of this tropical cyclone on the Hawaiian Islands. Considering the fact that Iselle will likely dump copious amounts of tropical rainfall on the islands…Julio could do the same thing. This would lead to very serious flooding problems!

Open ocean vessels should be steering clear of this slowly strengthening tropical storm, especially as it intensifies into a category 1 hurricane by mid-week.

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this storm…along with the latest image from NOAA.


Tropical Cyclone Genevieve
remains active in the central Pacific, and will be strengthening into a tropical storm soon…as it continues to move away from the Hawaiian Islands.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) wind shear is barely keeping Genevieve from becoming a tropical storm. The CPHC mentions that this tropical depression could be upgraded to a storm perhaps as early as later this morning.

As a matter of fact, the latest outlook shows that Genevieve will intensify into a typhoon…just after it gets into the western Pacific. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will take over forecasting responsibility as this storm crosses the International Dateline…into the western Pacific Ocean.

This is a very long lasting tropical cyclone, which begin her career back in the eastern Pacific. In the extended forecast period, it will eventually reach cooler sea surface temperatures, and begin a weakening trend…although not before it punches into the western Pacific. This will have made it a storm that moved across the eastern, central, and then into the western Pacific!

Open ocean ships should steer clear of this system, as it still poses a threat, especially as it attains tropical storm classification soon…and then onto a typhoon within 48 hours.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Halong

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Halong

Typhoon (Halong) continues moving over the open ocean…well offshore to the east-northeast of the Philippine Islands

Here’s a good NASA satellite image of this typhoon…which was earlier in its life a super typhoon. 

The current winds, at the time of warning #33 were 85 knots sustained…with gusts to near 105 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows that Typhoon Halong become somewhat less organized…in terms of the deep convection over the northern half of the low level circulation center.

The present location is approximately 351 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB…and is tracking north-northwestward at near 12 mph during the past six hours.

Typhoon 11W is forecast to continue its track northwards through the next 36 hours…with a continue weakening trend. However, as wind shear becomes lighter, it may find some added strength again.

The current path takes Halong to the east of Okinawa, although nearly over the small island of Minami Daito Jima. Thereafter, it pushes more or less northwards towards the southern Japanese Islands…still as a weakened typhoon or a strong tropical storm. This will bring heavy weather, including blustery winds and flooding rainfall to the Japanese Islands…with high surf and storm surge.

Open ocean mariners should should also be giving this dangerous typhoon a wide berth over the next 4 days.

 Here’s a satellite image of this Typhoon – with another view.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and Global cloud cover

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98E, that is active south of the Mexican coast.

Upper level winds are expected to gradually become lighter or the next few days, while this disturbed area moves west-northwest at near 10-15 knots.

Here’s a satellite image of this area – along with what the hurricane models are showing.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Iselle

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone Julio

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico.  While shower and thunderstorm activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
upper-level winds could become more conducive for development over
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Genevieve

CPHC textual forecast
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days. (CPHC)

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Halong)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Arabian Sea