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May
29
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

http://www.pdc.org/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Timor-Sea1-1024x687.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Amanda) remains active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 455 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Amanda) in the NE Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 01E (Amanda) in the NE Pacific Ocean

The first tropical cyclone of the 2014 NE Pacific hurricane season, tropical cyclone 01E (Amanda), continues to weaken over the waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean. It is located about 455 mile south of the southern tip of Baja California.

Amanda is moving towards the east near 7 mph…with a slower east or east-northeastward motion expected over the next day or so.

Amanda has been downgraded to a tropical depression now, as satellite imagery shows that it has been deteriorating this morning. The remaining deep convection is pretty much confined to a band of thunderstorms, which is about 150 NM from the center…which lacks curvature.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting continued further weakening, with TD Amanda likely becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours, if not sooner. The NHC goes on to suggest that dissipation is predicted to occur in about four days.

Maximum sustained winds have been reduced from 65 mph yesterday (Wednesday)…to the current 35 mph sustained today. The forecast brings this number down to 30 mph in 12 hours…and further downward to 25 mph within 36 hours.

Whatever is left of Amanda in about two days, is forecast to take a turn back towards the southwest…keeping it away from the Mexican coast. As a matter of fact, TD Amanda remains well offshore from Mexico, so that there are no warnings or watches in effect there.

Here’s what the models are showing in a graphical display.

Meanwhile, NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product, shows that there may be a new tropical cyclone forming to the east-southeast of where weakening TD Amanda is now located…at some point during the next 24-48 hours. NOAA is giving it a low to medium chance of spinning up into the next tropical system offshore from southern Mexico.

The Navy’s confirms that the current area of disturbed weather in that general area may take form, and move more or less northward towards the coast of Mexico…and inland from there. At the same time, the GFS model pretty much mirrors the Navy model’s outlook.

Here’s a looping satellite image of this general area around TD Amanda…along with the latest NOAA IR satellite picture of this tropical depression…and a color enhanced satellite image.

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 01E (Amanda) 

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the northeast Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Central North Pacific

The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th…and will begin again June 1st. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Here’s the central Pacific’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface temperatures for this area of the NW Pacific

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for this area of the South Pacific

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Here’s the Sea Surface Temperatures for the South Indian Ocean

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area