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May
08
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

http://www.pdc.org/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Timor-Sea1-1024x687.jpg

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues pointing out an area of disturbed weather (being referred to as 91B) over southwestern India. This area is located approximately 20 NM north-northeast of Cochin, India…which puts half of it out over the northern Indian Ocean. Here’s a NASA satellite image showing the location of this weak tropical low pressure system.

Animated satellite imagery shows that this system has a broad and poorly defined low level circulation center…with disorganized deep convection.

Upper level analysis shows a marginal environment, with moderate easterly wind shear…offset by strong diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots (12-17 mph)…which shows that the wind speeds haven’t changed since yesterday.

The JTWC continues giving this tropical disturbance a low chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image from the SSEC, showing the clouds associated with this weak tropical disturbance.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation

An area of disturbed weather continues to be reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This area of low pressure remains embedded within the northern end of a monsoon trough, with the associated deep thunderstorms located well northeast of the center…due to the the moderate wind shear aloft. This disturbance is being referred to as 90E.

This tropical low pressure system is located about 150 miles southwest of Zihuatenejo, Mexico.

Microwave imagery and lightning detection data indicate that the heaviest rainfall is occurring along the coasts of Michoacan and Guerrero states.

At 1554 UTC conditions in Uruapan, a city in the state of Michoacan, were overcast with winds from the north-northeast at 9 mph…while the air temperature was 64F. Farther south in Acapulco, located in the Mexican state of Guerrero, cumulonimbus clouds and towering cumulus clouds were reported at 1542 UTC. Light rain was reported in the previous two hours, according to observations listed on NOAA’s website. The winds were from the north-northeast at 13 mph…with an air temperature of 80F.

The combination of the southwesterly winds in the southeast quadrant of this disturbance, are joining with a south swell coming up from the southern hemisphere, producing significant wave heights peaking at 11 feet along the coast of Mexico again today…as it was yesterday.

This disturbance is expected to meander just offshore of Mexico during the next day or so…before dissipating.

The NHC has downgraded (from yesterday) the chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone…to low over the next 48 hours.

Here’s the latest looping satellite image of this area.

More information on this disturbance is located just below…

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and will begin again on the 15th of this month. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
525 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ZIHUATENEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE CAUSED
THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO TODAY.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th…and will begin again June 1st. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area