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Apr
24
2014

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

http://www.pdc.org/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Timor-Sea1-1024x687.jpg

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific or Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with an area of disturbed weather

There continues to be an area of disturbed weather (being referred to as 91S) located approximately 245 NM northeast of Darwin, Australia.

Satellite imagery shows flaring deep convection over a consolidating low level circulation center.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), microwave imagery shows a weak circulation, with a fragmented and shallow band of convection south of the center.

Sea surface temperatures in the area are conducive for development, showing 30 degrees Celsius (86F).

Upper level analysis reveals an increasingly favorable environment with widely divergent outflow, however moderate to strong 20-30 knots of wind shear was displacing the convection.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).

The JTWC continues to give the potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours…a medium chance.

Here’s a satellite image of this area

Here’s the Tropical Cyclone Outlook for this area…from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology:

Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria Issued at 2:38 pm CST on Thursday 24 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Sunday 27 April 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region: Nil.

Potential Cyclones: A weak Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to remain weak and move slowly east to southeast for the next 48 hours and then move northwest from Sunday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday Very Low
Saturday Low
Sunday Low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with an area of disturbed weather

Meanwhile, there is a second tropical disturbance in the northwestern Pacific (being referred to as 99W)…located approximately 140 NM east-northeast of Chuuk.

Satellite imagery shows an ill-defined and exposed low level circulation center, with limited bursts of associated deep convection.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of a ridge of high pressure, in an area of of light 5-10 knot easterly wind shear…with fair poleward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots (12-17 mph)

The JTWC is giving the potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours…a low chance.

Here’s a satellite image of this area

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and has now ended. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th…and has now ended. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area