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Sep
30
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) is active…located about 1200 NM east-southeast of Bermuda (Sustained winds of 40 mph) 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for tropical storm Jerry in the central Atlantic Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for tropical storm Jerry in the central Atlantic Ocean

The eleventh Atlantic tropical depression formed this past Saturday evening, about 960 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands…moving north at 9 mph. Tropical Depression 11, then strengthened into tropical storm Jerry Sunday night, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph…moving towards the east at 7 mph.  TS Jerry is expected to move slowly, and with no clear direction over the next several days..perhaps even making a loop.

Jerry was centered about 1,200 mile east-southeast of Bermuda early this morning (Monday, September 30th).  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects that TS 11L will experience some strengthening over the next day or two. The NHC is forecasting Jerry to peak in strength at near 46 mph, during the next several days…not becoming a hurricane however.  It is of no threat to any land or island areas at this time.

Here is a satellite image showing this tropical storm…along with what the hurricane models are showing.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, and a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea…circled in yellow

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, and a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea…circled in yellow

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, being referred to as Invest 97L, located in the central Caribbean. It’s located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica. It remains disorganized according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and has a low 10% chance of developing during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to improve somewhat as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean, and the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next 5-day days. It’s chances of becoming a tropical depression take on a medium 30% chance of developing during the next 5-days.

The primary limiting factor at the moment is the moderately strong vertical wind shear over this disturbance…along with relatively dry area ahead, along its path. Nonetheless, heavy rains are anticipated over Jamaica, and southwestern Haiti today. This heavy precipitation is expected to spread to the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday…and onto the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico thereafter.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the weather models are showing.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical storm Jerry

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map

NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico