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Sep
27
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 20W (Wutip) is now active…located about 407 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam (Sustained winds of 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots) 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, segments, and error cone for tropical storm Wutip…over the South China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, segments, and error cone for tropical storm Wutip…over the South China Sea

Tropical storm 20W (Wutip) has spun up in the South China Sea, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Tropical Storm Wutip formed in the South China Sea today, after coming to life yesterday, September 26th…as Tropical depression 20W.

Tropical storm Wutip had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40  mph) at 1500 UTC this morning (Friday). It was centered near 17 north and 115.3 east, in the South China Sea, or about 407 NM east of Da Nang, Vietnam…moving towards the west at 11 knots (13 mph).

The JTWC noted that warm sea water temperatures in the South China Sea, and low wind shear aloft, will allow tropical storm Wutip to intensify steadily over the next couple of days.  TS Wutip is forecast to strengthen to 65 knots (75 mph) by September 29th (Sunday)…making it a low level typhoon.

Wutip is expected to move in a westerly direction over the next couple of days, and then make landfall along the central Vietnam coastline early next week September 30th (Monday).

Ships in the area should be steering clear of this strengthening storm. It appears that Hainan Island will be too far north to be heavily influenced by Wutip. The coast of VN will be impacted by high surf, strong and gusty tropical storm force winds…and potentially flooding rainfall. Coastal residents, and small boaters should be on alert, while areas inland will see gusty winds, and locally heavy showers and thunderstorms as this system dissipates while moving away from the water.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, and a tropical disturbance in the northeast Pacific, offshore from Mexico…with a low chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, and a tropical disturbance in the northeast Pacific, offshore from Mexico…with a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance remains active in the northeastern Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 92E. This disturbance, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), continues to have only a low 20% chance of developing during the next 48 hours…which remains the same during the next 5-day period.

Most of the associated heavy rains are now falling offshore from Mexico…although there are still locally heavy showers and thunderstorm over portions of southwestern Mexico…which could continue until this system moves further offshore. As this disturbance moves westward away from the coast this weekend, rainfall will put away from Mexico for the most part. Upper level shearing winds are forecast to come into play after the weekend, keeping the chances of development limited.

Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

 

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. 
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical storm 20W (Wutip) 

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map

NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area