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Aug
30
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical depression 14W (Kong-rey) remains active over the NW Pacific Ocean…located approximately 251 NM west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan (sustained winds of 30 knots…with gusts near 40 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

Tropical depression Kong-rey remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 251 NM west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. What was a tropical storm over the last few days, dropped very heavy rainfall over Taiwan! Flooding from torrential rainfall, with totals of near 19.70 inches, were reported in western Taiwan. A rainfall analysis from radar instruments, revealed that precipitation was falling at a rate of over 8.00 inches per hour over parts of Taiwan.

Today on Friday, at 1500 UTC, Kong-rey had weakened to a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (35 mph). Kong-rey was moving northeastward at 13 knots (15 mph)…according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Tropical Depression Kong-Rey is forecast to continue moving northeast, remaining just offshore from the western coasts of the Japanese Islands, until it makes a brief landfall near Misawa in the north on September 1st. The local populations along those western Japanese islands can expect showers, gusty winds and somewhat rough ocean conditions over the next two days.

Here’s a NOAA satellite picture of TS Kong-rey east of the mainland Chinese coast…heading towards Japan

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with tropical storm Juliette and tropical disturbances with low chances of developing in the NE Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with tropical storm Juliette and tropical disturbances with low chances of developing in the NE Pacific Ocean

There continues to be two tropical disturbances over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The first area circled in yellow above, located closest to the Mexican coast, has a low 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  This disturbance is located about 525 mile southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It’s an area of low pressure that’s disorganized, although has some showers and thunderstorms associated with it. It will continue moving more or less northward, and in the process…into an area that has cooler sea surface temperatures. It continues to have a low 20% chance of developing over the next 5-days.

A second area of low pressure, also circled in yellow, has a low 10% chance of developing. This low pressure area lies about 1,550 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It has a low 10 percent chance of development over the next two days, according to the NHC. The longer range outlook from the NHC, calls for a slightly better 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 5-days.

Both of these two areas under investigation are shown on this satellite image. Here’s a NASA satellite image showing this same area, and the area where Juliette was located…before it got dropped by the NHC recently.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN A ABOUT A DAY AND
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALSO A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER NIGHT.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual forecast advisory

JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area