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Aug
30
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami continues pointing out two areas of disturbed weather in their Friday morning discussion. The yellow circle above, the one most westerly in direction (well east of the Lesser Antilles)…is moving in a westerly direction at 15 mph. Looking at satellite imagery, there continues to be only minimal thunderstorm activity within this yellow circle.

The NHC is giving this area a low 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next 48 hours…increasing to 20% over the next 5-days. There’s a chance that this area could bring  rains and gusty breezes to the Lesser Antilles Islands later Sunday or Monday. At the same time, stronger wind shear aloft will occur, with only a minor chance of development of this system from there on out.

The second circled area, colored orange, is now moving out into the Atlantic waters from Africa. We may see this system move over the Cape Verde Islands over the next several days, bringing rainfall and gusty breezes. The NHC is giving a medium 40% chance of development during the next 48 hours…increasing to a higher 60% chance over the next 5-days. It will be a long trek across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean, or North America, so if this system does develop, we’ll be keeping an eye on it for the next week at least.

This NOAA looping satellite image shows both of these areas

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL
LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. 

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico