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Aug
29
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 14W (Kong-rey) remains active over the NW Pacific Ocean…located approximately 100 NM north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan (sustained winds of 40 knots…with gusts near 50 knots)

Tropical storm 10E (Juliette) is now active over the eastern Pacific Ocean…located approximately 80 miles northwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico (sustained winds of 40 mph)

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

Tropical storm Kong-rey remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 177 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Kong-rey has moved north of Taiwan, and is about to take a rather abrupt turn towards the northeast. It was centered near 26.9 north and 122.4 east, or about 100 NM north-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Kong-rey’s maximum sustained winds were near 40 knots (46 mph). This tropical storm is moving towards the north at 4 knots 5 mph),

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expect Kong-rey to become extra-tropical in nature within the next couple of days. JTWC forecasters expect that Kong-rey will make landfall in Japan sometime Saturday, August 31st…just south of Sasebo, Kyushu, Japan. This will bring gusty breezes, along with rainfall to much of the Japanese islands…as this dissipating system passes in a northeasterly direction over that nation.

Here’s a NOAA satellite picture of TS Kong-rey just north of Taiwan…and just east of the mainland Chinese coast

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with tropical storm Juliette and tropical disturbances with low chances of developing in the NE Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…with tropical storm Juliette and tropical disturbances with low chances of developing in the NE Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Juliette formed in the eastern Pacific about 24 hours ago. This TS was located about 190 miles southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico this morning (Thursday). A tropical Storm Warning was in force for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia.  Juliette is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula….with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 22 mph, although is expected to slow down later today.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Juliette to turn west-northwest and slow down on Friday. Juliette’s center will keep moving along, or near the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula through this evening.  Weakening is expected due to her interaction with the coast, in addition to moving over cooler waters. Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low pressure system tonight or Friday. Here’s a NOAA satellite look at TS Juliette…just offshore to the west of Baja.

Meanwhile. there are two tropical disturbances over the ocean, well south and southwest of TS Juliette. The first area circled in yellow above, to the south of Juliette, has a low 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  This disturbance is located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It’s a broad area of low pressure, that’s generating quite a few clouds and showers. This weak low pressure system is moving to the northwest at 10 mph…and in this direction will reach unfavorably cooler sea surface temperatures soon.

A second area of low pressure well southwest of Juliette, circled in yellow, has a low 20% chance of developing. This low pressure area lies to the west of the first low…and is located about 1,500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It has a 20 percent chance of development over the next two days, according to the NHC.

Both of these two areas under investigation, and TS Juliette are shown on this satellite image.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Juliette)

NHC textual forecast advisory

NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT.  CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual forecast advisory

JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area