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Aug
28
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 14W (Kong-rey) remains active over the NW Pacific Ocean…located approximately 177 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan (sustained winds of 50 knots…with gusts near 65 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the NW Pacific

Tropical storm Kong-rey remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 177 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. TS 14W is expected to track northwest through the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows this system re-curving to the northeast…with a gradual weakening in strength too.

The primary negative force that this TS will encounter going forward, will be the close land interaction with Taiwan…and eventually the east coast of mainland China. This getting closer to land will disrupt the low level inflow, aiding in the weakening process. There will also be an increase in vertical wind shear above Kong-rey after 36 hours.

As this tropical storm gets to its 72 hour point, it’s forecast by the JTWC to accelerate northeast across the southeast coast of Japan. JTWC notes that there is a low confidence in the extended forecast points, especially in terms of exactly where the storm will re-curve to the northeast.

The northeast part of Taiwan will be very close to the center of this tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large city of Taipei is expected to be within 100 miles of the center point, receiving lots of gusty winds and heavy rains…likely interrupting transportation. Thereafter, as the storm gets into the Japanese Islands, inclement weather conditions will arrive there as well…especially along the coasts of those islands. High surf and swells will make for stormy conditions in Taiwan and Japan as well. Ships, and coastal boaters should find shelter or use available harbors.

 

NE Pacific

The first area circled in orange above, has a medium 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system, and the coast of Mexico…is supporting gale force winds. These windy conditions will affect the southern portions of the Gulf of California, and the Baja Peninsula this afternoon into the night.

Regardless of development of this tropical disturbance, the system will continue to bring locally heavy precipitation over portions of southwestern Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the next couple of days. Flash flooding and mudslides can be expected locally.

A second area of low pressure, circled in yellow above, has a low 10% chance of developing…and remains well offshore from the Mexican coast.

Both of these two areas under investigation are showing on this satellite image.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE CLOSED CIRCULATION.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHEN THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS
NOT EXPECTED.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.  

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOW WILL ALSO 
BE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area