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Aug
28
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

Florida Strait

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is pointing out several areas of potentially disturbed weather in their morning discussions. At the time of this writing however, only one is being shown on their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. This area, circled in yellow above, has a very low 0% chance of developing in the Florida Strait. The following satellite picture shows this area under investigation between Florida and Cuba.

This middle to upper level cyclonic circulation is in the Florida Straits near 24N and 81W. Convective rainfall is the Straits, and is affecting some of the Florida Keys.

There doesn’t appear to be any threat of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone…with just some added rainfall in the area.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico