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Aug
27
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 14W (Kong-rey) remains active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 324 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan (sustained winds of 50 knots…with gusts near 65 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the Philippine Sea

Tropical storm Kong-rey remains active in the northwest Pacific…located approximately 324 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. At the time of this writing, wind shear was having an effect on the thunderstorms in TS Kong-rey’s northern quadrant. This upper level wind shear is expected to relax somewhat, allowing Kong-rey to intensify over the next day or so…perhaps just reaching minimum typhoon strength within the next couple of days.

At 1500 UTC August 27th, Kong-rey’s maximum sustained winds were near 50 knots (57 mph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is calling for a slow intensification. Kong-rey is moving directly north at 8 knots (9 mph).

Kong-rey is expected to pass offshore to the east of Taiwan, and then a mid-latitude trough (elongated area of low pressure) moving in from the northwest, is expected to push the storm in a northeasterly direction, and weaken it in the next couple of days. The extended forecast period shows this TS moving over the Japanese Islands this coming weekend.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and tropical disturbances with a medium and low chance of developing in the far Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and tropical disturbances with a medium and low chance of developing in the far Eastern Pacific

The area circled in orange above, has a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This system is being called Invest 95E, and is producing strong convection (thunderstorms) over the ocean…and inland over Mexico as well. Expect locally heavy rainfall to continue over portions of southwest Mexico, spreading over the southern Baja Peninsula as well.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) notes that this area consists of multiple low pressure swirls, along with scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms within 60 NM of the low level center. At the same time, satellite imagery suggests that this area of broad low pressure is currently being affected by upper level northeasterly wind shear.

If this system were to become a tropical depression, it would become the 10th tropical cyclone of the season in the eastern Pacific. Then, if it were to become even stronger, it would take on the name Juliette…as a tropical storm.

A second area of low pressure, with a low 20% chance of developing has just formed this morning as well…described below.

Both of these two areas under investigation are showing on this satellite image.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

THE PORTION OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAD BEEN
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA IS DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY IN A DAY OR SO...AND
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area