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Aug
27
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing in the Florida Strait

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing in the Florida Strait

Now retired tropical cyclone Fernand moved into eastern Mexico early yesterday morning (Monday August 26), bringing copious rainfall with it. Flash flooding caused 13 deaths in the mountainous region west of Vera Cruz. Vera Cruz was struck by tropical storm Fernand early Monday morning…with 50 mph winds.

Tropical moisture continues to stream over eastern Mexico today, as the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fernand continue to migrate inland. Radar data from Mexico showed rainfall falling near the city of Tampico on the Gulf of Mexico, to the west and northwest. Areas including Ebano and Panuco were experiencing heavy rainfall as well. The center of Fernand’s remnants were near 20.6 north latitude and 98.5 west longitude, which is between the states of Hidalgo and Veracruz.

The National Meteorological Service (NMS of Mexico) expects Fernand’s remnants to generate intense and heavy rain in the northeastern states of east and central Mexico. A warning remains in effect for heavy rainfall. The NMS of Mexico noted that heavy rainfall is possible today in Veracruz, Puebla, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Heavy rainfall is also possible in Distrito Federal, Tlaxcala and Queretaro.

Here’s a satellite image of the heavy rain producing clouds associated with former Fernand…over eastern Mexico

Meanwhile, as noted below, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is pointing out a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. At the time of this writing, it is not being carried as an area under investigation by the NHC. A new area of disturbed weather, with a low 10% chance of developing in the Florida Strait has cropped up recently – pictured above. The following satellite picture shows this area under investigation between Florida and Cuba.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. 
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico