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Aug
26
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 14W (Kong-rey) is now active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 241 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines (sustained winds of 35 knots…with gusts near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Kong-rey over the Philippine Sea

Tropical storm Kong-rey, the 14th tropical cyclone in the western Pacific has become active this past weekend…located approximately 241 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines. Tropical Storm Kong-Rey was generated from a low pressure system called Invest 91W. It is located east of the northeast Philippines, and bringing the region gusty winds, rains and rough seas today, August 26.

Today, August 26 at 1500 UTC, Kong-rey’s maximum sustained winds were near 35 knot (40 mph). The storm was centered near 17.7 north and 123.9 east, or about 241 NM northeastward of Manila, Philippines…tracking northwestward at 12 knots (14 mph). Tropical Storm Kong-rey was bringing rainfall to eastern Luzon.

The forecast along the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon today calls for cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms. According to PAGASA, the Phillippine Atmospheric and Astronomical Services Administration, winds in that area are expected to be 32 and 39 mph, along very rough seas, as TS Kong-rey continues moving just past the northern Philippines.

TS Kong-rey is forecast to move north-northwest past Luzon island…passing just offshore to the east of Taiwan on its continued more or less northerly path. This will bring gusty winds, heavy seas, and pounding rainfall to Taiwan as it moves by there in a couple of day.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of Kong-rey as it slides by just offshore from eastern Luzon Island, Philippines.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing in the far Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing in the far Eastern Pacific

The area circled in red above, just hugging the southwest coast of Mexico, has a high 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This system is being called Invest 95E, and is producing strong convection (thunderstorms) over the ocean…and inland over Mexico as well.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) notes that overall, this disturbance isn’t quite organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression yet. However, this area is forecast to intensify to 20-30 knots (23-35 mph) later today…and further increase to 30-35 knots (35-40 mph) later tonight.

If this system were to become a tropical depression soon, it would become the 10th tropical cyclone of the season in the eastern Pacific. Then, if it were to become even stronger, it would take on the name Juliette…as a tropical storm.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area