Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Aug
26
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical depression Fernand (06L) remains active inland over Mexico…located approximately 50 NM south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico (sustained winds of 30 knots…gusts to near 40 knots)

PDC Global Hazards PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression Fernand now inland over eastern Mexico

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3  hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments for Tropical depression Fernand now inland over eastern Mexico

During the week of August 18, a low pressure area was lingering in the western Caribbean Sea, which then moved into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where it quickly developed into Tropical Storm Fernand late on August 25th. Today, August 26th, satellite imagery continues to see thunderstorms associated with Fernand…over mainland east Mexico, dropping heavy rainfall.

At landfall, Fernand’s maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. Fernand is now moving toward the north-northwest over mainland Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Fernand to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain over Veracruz, Hidalgo, northern Puebla, southern Tamaulipas and eastern San Luis Potosi, Mexico today. Isolated maximum amounts of up to 12 inches are possible, and Fernand’s rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Veracruz northward to Barra de Nautla, Mexico. However, now that Fernand is over land, and is forecast to continue moving inland as a reduced tropical depression…dissipation and less wind is expected over the next 24 hours.

Here’s a satellite image taken by NASA earlier this morning, at which point Fernand was still a tropical storm. This latest satellite picture taken by NOAA now shows a diminished tropical depression moving inland.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Atlantic Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical depression Fernand (06L)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico