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Aug
22
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 12W (Trami) is dissipating inland over China…located approximately 107 NM west-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan (sustained winds of 75 knots…with gusts to near 90 knots) – Final Warning

Tropical storm 01C (Pewa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 331 NM north-northeast of Wake Island (sustained winds of 35 knots…with gusts near 45 knots)

Tropical depression 09E is now active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located approximately 390 NM south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico (sustained winds of 30 knots…with gusts near 40 knots)

Inland China

Now retired Typhoon Trami, is dissipating inland over mainland China. Trami made landfall in east China’s Fujian Province with maximum sustained winds near 75 knots (86 mph). At 2100 UTC on August 21 it was centered about 107 nautical miles west-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan. It was moving west at 15 knots (17 mph).

According to China Daily, the Fujian Meteorological Center warned of flooding and mudslides. Xinhuanet.com reported that more than 6,000 people were evacuated and over 2,000 vessels were secured in the harbor before Trami approached.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their final bulletin on Trami, and noted that the typhoon is expected to erode due to the frictional effects of land and fully dissipate over land by the early morning hours of August 23.

 

PDC Global Hazards PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Pewa over the Western Pacific

PDC Global Hazards PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Pewa over the Western Pacific

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Pewa (01C) remains active in the western Pacific…located approximately 331 NM north-northeast of Wake Island. This morning, August 22nd at 1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Pewa had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph).  TS Pewa continues moving away from Wake Island in a north-northwesterly direction at 13 knots (15 mph).

TS Pewa is expected to turn poleward, which will bring it over cooler sea surface temperatures with time. At that time, there will be increasing vertical wind shear over this storm. Nonetheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects TS Pewa to strengthen a bit more, reaching 45 knots (52 mph) of sustained winds for about 24-36 hours…before starting a weakening trend. The JTWC notes that there’s a possibility of dissipation below the warning threshold before the current forecast period ends.

Here’s a current NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Pewa

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression 09E in the Eastern Pacific...along with a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical depression 09E in the Eastern Pacific…along with a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

Tropical depression 09E has spun up in the eastern Pacific, located about 390 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this newly formed system has a window of about 48 hours to strengthen…before it moves over significantly colder water, and into an area of stable air offshore from the Baja Peninsula. Thus, weakening from what is expected to become a tropical storm, should occur shortly after this 48 hour mark.

Moisture associated with this tropical depression could start to surge northward towards northwestern Mexico, and the southwestern United States, over the next 3-5 days. If this were to occur, there would be the increasing possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding.

The tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, has a low 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical depression

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical Cyclone 09E

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS…

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR
0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Trami) Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pewa)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area