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Aug
21
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Typhoon 12W (Trami) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 45 NM north-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan (sustained winds of 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots)

Tropical storm 01C (Pewa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 242 NM east-southeast of Wake Island (sustained winds of 45 knots…with gusts near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon Trami over the East China Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Typhoon Trami over the East China Sea

Typhoon Trami, is located approximately 45 NM north-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan. By 1200 UTC this morning, Trami’s center had passed Taiwan, and was in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan Strait is a body of water between the western side of the island nation of Taiwan…and eastern China.

Trami’s maximum sustained winds are near 70 knots (81 mph). Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 100 NM (115 miles) from the center, and northern Taiwan was experiencing them at the time of this writing. Trami is moving to the west at 15 knots (17 mph) and is generating 28-foot high seas…causing rough surf in northern Taiwan and eastern China.

According to the China Meteorological Agency, Trami is expected to make landfall soon near Fuzhou, China. An Orange Typhoon Warning is in effect, and eastern Guangdong, most of Fujian, central and southern Zhejiang Provinces are expected to receive heavy flooding rainfall as Typhoon Trami closes in for landfall. High surf and storm surge will impact the coasts as well. Strong and gusty winds will batter these areas…then moving inland along with the then dissipating storm.

This NASA satellite image shows Typhoon Trami as it moved by Taiwan earlier this morning – and a larger version (unlabled)

This NOAA satellite image shows the current dynamic nature of this typhoon…as it approaches the northwest coast of China

 

PDC Global Hazards PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Pewa over the West Pacific

PDC Global Hazards PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm Pewa over the West Pacific

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Pewa (01C) remains active in the western Pacific…located approximately 242 NM east-southeast of Wake Island. This morning, August 21st at 1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Pewa had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph). Pewa is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend out from the center up to 65 miles.

Wake Island is a coral atoll, whose coastline stretches only 12 miles, and is located north of the Marshall Islands. TS Pewa continues moving past Wake Island in a north-northwesterly direction at 12 knots (14 mph).

Theis GOES satellite data showed that TS Pewa still has bands of thunderstorms around the center…and in the northern quadrant of the circulation.

TS Pewa is expected to intensify while moving northwest. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast indicates that it’s expected to become a typhoon within 48 hours.

Here’s a current NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Pewa

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and red) in the Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and red) in the Eastern Pacific

Finally, there are two tropical disturbances in the eastern Pacific, both described further down this page. The most dynamic of the two, circled in red above, continues to find favorable environment conditions for development into a tropical depression. Here’s what the weather models are showing for this low pressure system…being called Invest 94E.

The second area, circled in yellow above, remains in an area that’s limiting the development of this tropical disturbance for the time being.

Here’s a satellite image of this area of the eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

A low level circulation about 685 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii is moving slowly west. Intensification of this feature, if any, over the next couple of days will be slow. It has a low chance, near 0 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Trami)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pewa)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area