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Aug
20
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 12W (Trami) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 211 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan (sustained winds of 60 knots…with gusts to near 75 knots)

Tropical storm 01C (Pewa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 436 NM east-southeast of Wake Island (sustained winds of 50 knots…with gusts near 65 knots)

Tropical depression 03C is active in the central Pacific…ready to cross into the western Pacific Ocean soon…located approximately 827 NM east of Wake Island (sustained winds of 30 knots) 

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm (Trami) over the northwest Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm (Trami) over the northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Trami, in the northwest Pacific Ocean, is located approximately 211 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. This TS has tracked westward at 12 knots (14 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the convective bands, associated with the low level circulation center, have deepened…even as subsidence continues to impact the northern edge of the system.

TS Trami is expected to continue moving west, while slightly intensifying over the next 12 hours. This will occur as the outflow aloft increases, and sea surface temperatures remain warm. Thereafter, cooling sea surface temperatures, land interaction with northern Taiwan, along with a final landfall into China…will cause its gradual decay and eventual dissipation inland.

The northern half of Taiwan will receive a strong lashing by this storm, with very rough surf and localized storm surge along the coast. Winds will be of typhoon force at impact with Taiwan, along with flooding rainfall. As Trami crosses Taiwan, the winds will become lighter, although the heavy precipitation will carry across this large island. As Trami then crosses the Taiwan Strait, it will lose more strength, before reaching the China coast at tropical storm force. This will bring gusty winds, heavy rains, and some surf to the coast.

This NOAA satellite image shows the dynamic nature of this tropical storm…as it approaches the northwest coast of Taiwan.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical cyclones 12W and 03C

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with tropical cyclones 12W and 03C

Meanwhile, tropical storm Pewa (01C) remains active in the western Pacific…located approximately 436 NM east-southeast of Wake Island. TW Pewa has tracked northwestward at 13 knots (15 mph) during the last six hours. TS Pewa will continue tracking northwest, which will bring it under an area with less vertical wind sheer…and increasing poleward outflow. These dynamics, combined with a warm sea surface, will cause this TS to gradually intensify. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is suggesting that within 72 hours, this storm will reach the moderate typhoon category…with 85 knot winds (98 mph).

In the extended forecast period, TS Pewa will drift into a weak steering environment. This in turn will cause the cyclone to track on a slow westward path, or even become quasi-starionary. However, low vertical wind shear and a strong poleward outflow, over an even warmer pool of sea water, will enhance additional strengthening. By the end of the JTWC forecast period, TS 01C will be a strong typhoon…with 100 knots of wind (115 mph). This will all happen over an open ocean, with no land interaction expected along its path. Large ships at sea should be steering clear of this gradually strengthening storm.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Pewa.

Tropical depression 03C remains active in the far western central Pacific…soon to cross the International Dateline into the far eastern western Pacific. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), the exposed low level circulation center continues to track west-northwest away from the primary area of deep convection.

Tropical depression 03C is moving towards the west-northwest at 14 knots (16 mph). The upper air analysis indicates that there is 20-25 knots (23-29 mph) vertical wind shear above 03C. Given the continued degradation in the organization of this TD during the past six hours, the intensity forecast shows weakening to a remnant low within 24 hours…and then dissipation within 36 hours.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this weakening tropical depression.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Eastern Pacific

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with a tropical disturbances (circled in yellow and orange) in the Eastern Pacific

Finally, there are two tropical disturbances in the eastern Pacific, both described further down this page. The most dynamic of the two, circled in orange, shows improved upper level conditions, which corresponds to a favorable environment for development. Weather model solutions agree with tracking this system north-northwest, towards the southern Baja California coast. This low pressure system could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days.

The second area above, circled in yellow, will remain nearly stationary through the next 24-48 hours. Some of the weather models strengthen the system…although it would likely be short-lived…if any at all.

Here’s a satellite image of this area of the eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

Tropical Cyclone 03C 

CPHC textual forecast advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a disturbance about 650 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii have weakened over the past few hours. Intensification of this feature, if any, over the next couple of days will be slow. It has a low chance, 10 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Trami)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pewa)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area