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Aug
19
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical storm 12W (Trami) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 391 NM south of Kadena AB (sustained winds of 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots)

Typhoon 01C (Pewa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 1240 NM east-southeast of Wake Island (sustained winds of 65 knots…with gusts near 80 knots)

Tropical depression 02C (Unala) is dissipating in the western Pacific Ocean…located approximately 705 NM east of Wake Island (sustained winds of 30 knots) – Final Warning

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm (Trami) over the Philippine Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical Storm (Trami) over the northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Trami, in the northwest Pacific Ocean, has made a rather unusual U-turn…moving from a southeastern path to a northwestern path. At 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Trami was located about 391 nautical miles south of Kadena Air Base near 20.3 north and 128.4 west. TS Trami was moving slowly to the northeast at 4 knots (4.6 mph). Maximum sustained winds were near 50 knots (57.5 mph).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast is for TS Trami to intensify under favorable environmental conditions, and to reach a peak strength of 75 knots (86 mph) within 48 hours.

TC Trami is expected to cross northern Taiwan as a typhoon on August 21, then move on into the east China Sea.  It will weaken as it crosses ECS, before make a second and final landfall in southeastern China…dissipating inland over China by 96 hours.

 

Meanwhile, tropical storm Pewa has recently been upgraded to a typhoon…by the JTWC. On Sunday, August 18th, Pewa was a tropical storm when it crossed the International Date Line, and moved from the Central Pacific to the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Pewa now falls under the forecast authority of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Typhoon Pewa has maximum sustained winds near 65 knots (75 mph). It was centered near 13.9 north and 177.9 east, or about 726 nautical miles east-southeast of Wake Island. Pewa was moving to the northwest at 8 knots (9.2 mph).

Pewa is expected to continue to intensify as it moves northwest. The JTWC expects Pewa to pass far to the northeast of Wake Island on August 21 and 22.

 

Finally, tropical storm Unala, after forming in the far western side of the central Pacific…Unala has shifted into the western Pacific as a tropical depression.

At 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT on August 19, Tropical Depression Unala had maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (34.5 mph), after peaking earlier in the day at 40 mph. The center of Unala was located near latitude 17.3 north, longitude 178.1 west, or about 705 nautical miles east of Wake Island.  Unala was moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day.

Forecasters at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center noted that the interaction between Unala and Typhoon Pewa is expected to cause Unala to weaken more and dissipate within 24 hours.


Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  ALTHOUGH LITTLE
OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a disturbance located about 970 miles west southwest of Lihue, Hawaii are moving west northwestward at about 10 mph. Strong thunderstorms remain concentrated near an apparent low level circulation center. Upper level winds have become somewhat weaker over this area tonight, which may allow some slow development during the next day or two. This system has a medium chance, 30 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated surface trough located about 750 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased in coverage and intensity during the past several hours. Strong upper level winds are expected to inhibit significant development within this area today as it at moves toward the west northwest at 10 to 15 mph. However, the winds aloft may weaken somewhat by late tonight or early Tuesday, which may be slightly more conducive for development on Tuesday. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Trami)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pewa)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Tropical Cyclone 02C (Unala) – Final Warning

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area